U.S. farmer sentiment edged modestly higher in February, even as concerns about trade and the broader direction of the country weighed on longer-term confidence.
Released Tuesday, the latest monthly Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer was three points higher at 116 in February, compared to January. The improvement was driven by an 11-point rebound in the Current Conditions Index, suggesting producers feel somewhat better about their present situation. However, the Future Expectations Index slipped one point and now stands 45 points below its level from February 2025, marking its lowest reading since September 2024.
Undertaken Feb. 2–6, the survey of 400 producers across the country indicated a widening gap between short-term stabilization and longer-term uncertainty. About 44% of respondents reported their farm operations are worse off than a year ago. Looking ahead 12 months, 29% expect their financial performance to decline, compared to just 18% who anticipate improvement. Nearly half of producers — 48% — said they expect “bad times” for agriculture this year, double the share reported a year earlier. Crop producers were significantly more pessimistic than livestock operators, reflecting ongoing pressure from lower grain prices.
Trade remains a central concern. Although pessimism about agricultural exports eased slightly compared to January, it remains elevated relative to late 2025. Fourteen percent of farmers now expect exports to decline over the next five years — down from 16% in January but sharply higher than 5% in December.
Producers’ views on the broader direction of the U.S. also softened. The share who said they believe the country is headed in the “right direction” fell for the second consecutive month, slipping to 59% from 62% in January and 75% in December.
The survey also asked farmers how they plan to use payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program announced in late December. Nearly half — 47% — said they intend to use the funds to pay down debt, while 27% plan to shore up working capital. Smaller shares said the payments would go toward machinery purchases or family living expenses.
Despite the cautious mood, roughly half of respondents said they still plan to expand their operations over the next five years. However, high input costs, lower commodity prices, and persistent economic uncertainty are tempering optimism across rural America.
